Standley Associates January 2017 News, Bulletins and Updates

Recruiting in Germany Bulletin - January 2017

Welcome to our January 2017 Recruiting in Germany Bulletin.

This latest update indicates a continued demand for key skills in Germany, and we highlight some of the economic key trends leading commentators are predicting.

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Economic Commentary - what they are saying

GERMAN ECONOMY IN 2017

Gross domestic product (GDP) in Germany is expected to have grown by 1.8% in 2016. Growth for 2017 is predicted to be around at 1.4%. The primary growth driver for 2017 will once again be private consumption, mainly fuelled by the country’s record-high levels of employment.

However, the main perceived risks for the German economy seem to be predominantly on the export side. Global trade is only expected to show moderate growth in 2017 and specific risks are lurking in some of the major target countries for German exports – such as the forthcoming Brexit and the potential of the cooling down of the Chinese and US economies. Moreover, the economic impacts from the election of Donald Trump as US president Trump are, as yet, unclear.

Commentators are saying that German exports look like they will grow by 2.3% in 2016 and predictions are around 3.4% for 2017.

GROWTH RATE OF GERMAN EXPORTS 

The outlook for German exports in 2017 is cautiously optimistic. Nevertheless, the downward risks prevailing in the countries of importance for German trade need to be taken into account.

An analysis of the economic prospects in 2017, for the top 10 target countries for German exports, reveals a weaker trend than in 2016. Around 60% of all German exports are sold to these countries.

These negative impacts will be partially compensated for by the slightly improved economic outlook for the remaining countries in the top 10 group, along with clearly higher growth expected for emerging and developing countries - which account for around 30% of German exports.

ELECTIONS IN GERMANY in 2017

All available surveys at the time of writing still show that the Grand Coalition has a margin of security to obtain an absolute majority, while there is no majority for any other coalition of two parties.

Even a tripartite alliance of the SPD, Left Party and The Greens, which has been sought by several groups, would have little chance of obtaining an absolute majority, as things stand.

Unclear is however what the effect will be of the new SPD leader-elect Martin Schulz on the Election on the 27.09.2017. He will challenge Angela Merkel directly for the post as German Chancellor. He is known to be a tough politician and difficult opponent who is well-liked and admired within Europe coupled with his very large following in political circles worldwide.

Compiled January 2017 *

* Disclaimer: This document provides very basic and general information and should not be read as legal advice. Sources for the document include Reuters, Bloomberg, and news sites.

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